Fell Locomotive
Power Plant Boiler Industry Situation and Analysis of development trends
Development of the industry status quo
1. The size of the industry and the production capacity has improved rapidly. In recent years, strong demand for equipment energy production, industry boiler at the power plant marked the beginning of an unprecedented opportunity for development, has made considerable progress progress. According to the Directorate General of Statistics, currently the total assets of the industry reached 64.1 billion yuan in 2001, 13.7 billion yuan, 4.7 times more. In industry has expanded rapidly and at the same time, the ability production has increased dramatically. With the culmination of the historical value of output relative to the total value of industrial output (current prices) 450 billion yuan in 2001 5.3 billion to 8.5 times. Boiler plant 97.543 million kilowatts in 2001, 11.73 million kilowatts of 8, 3 times. China's annual production of equipment for power generation accounted for about 50% of world production, equipment production of electricity in total net contribution rate of 50% or more, has become the largest manufacturer of power boilers.
2. The full realization of the objectives of upgrades. More than 10 years, 30 kilowatts thermal units still need to import. At the end of 2007, 30 million kilowatts, 600,000 kilowatts and quality units, respectively, the total installed capacity of 50.15% and 21.53%. According to the Directorate General of Statistics, In 2008, the first three quarters, completed a total of 70,783,000 kilowatt boiler plant, 30 million, 600 thousand kilowatts or above the boiler quality accounted for 24.6% and 51.7%, supercritical and ultra supercritical thermal power generation have been promoted to the type of main engine. At the end of September 2008, has accumulated production of 60 million kw supercritical and ultra supercritical boilers 186 units, including: 600,000 kilowatts boiler Supercritical rated 150 units, 600,000 kilowatts class ultra supercritical boilers 15 units, 1 million kilowatts of ultra supercritical boiler 21 units (10 units have been put into service). In digesting imported technology, based on independent innovation has developed a supercritical, ultra critical size and large circulating fluidized bed boilers. Currently, supercritical, ultra supercritical boiler technology has reached the internationally advanced and become the most widely used large-scale circulating fluidized bed boilers country.
3. The ability to participate in international competition, including increased. As the size and strength of the industry, "by leaps and bounds, super normal" development, participate in the competition, rapidly climbing the scale and speed. According to the Directorate General of Statistics, in 2007, the industry exported goods worth 3.0 billion dollars to complete the first time to break the 900 million yuan from the historical record. The completion of the three first quarters of 2008, the sector exported goods worth 4 billion yuan, an increase of 168%. In particular, independent innovation, 600,000 kilowatts of supercritical boilers, have been achieved in India, Russia, Turkey and exports to other countries, marking the design Chinese power boilers and manufacturing standards have entered the ranks of the advanced world. According to the China Machinery and Electronic Products Import and Export Chamber of Commerce statistics, in 2007 the signing of 300,000 kilowatts of new power plants coal power plant contract in 31 sets of 600,000 kilowatts from coal power plants, 15 sets a new contract total installed capacity has reached 20 million kilowatts, the contract was 15 billion U.S. dollars. First half of 2008, investment projects abroad for the electric power 87 to coordinate the amount of up to 22.9 billion, including $ 44 billion project, the amount of some $ 206 billion. The new contracts signed during the first half amounted to 9.2 billion U.S., India First, to 7.38 billion U.S., Pakistan, other hand, to 11.2 billion U.S. dollars, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey not far behind. The new contracts for equipment supply Export signed during the past year, large-capacity coal fired power plants has become an "out" of the Locomotive.
4. The industry should enjoy and develop high speed is not reached simultaneously increased. At the request market electricity industry companies, which have remained high, the size and ability to grow rapidly, but by raw materials, components of resource constraints, rising prices, shortage of production capacity in the business, subcontracting and other factors outside the Association has increased the impact of energy costs has risen sharply boiler plant, the industry rapid growth, has not achieved the expected benefits of the simultaneous growth, particularly in the last two years, a significant decrease in industry profits.
According to the Directorate General of Statistics, in 2002, the overall losses of the industry since 2004, with the dramatic increase production, the profit levels of the industry grew by leaps and bounds. Total industry profit is the highest level in history in 2006-26 dollars in 2007 fell by 38%. The maximum value of historical cost profit for 2004 of 12%, followed by 2 percentage points per year decline in 2007, fell to 4.18%, higher than in 2002 only 1 percentage point. The first three quarters of 2008, the industry total profits of 1.62 billion yuan, down 21%, the margin cost 5.7%, down 2.2 percentage points. Since the third quarter, Although the price of steel and other raw materials have fallen from an elevated, but the average price remains high, but the impact Steel prices on the gross profit margin of at least a six-month time lag, so that the apparent rebound in the equipment room Gross production of electricity to wait for the second half of 2009.
At the same time, prices raw materials fall too fast and too trendy, but also to scare us about the future development of the industry, macro economic decline and economic recession in the background gives us fast growth in demand can not place too optimistic forecasts, while the rapid decline in the cost raw materials can lead to falling product prices, demand growth once can not compensate for losses caused by price decline, the industry can cope with revenue, the level of margin decline a double dilemma.
Industry Trend Analysis Development
1. Macro complex economic trends and uncertain. China's economy since 1990, has continued to maintain a 10% or more period of growth appears twice: again from 1992 to 1996 in China with strong economic growth, the 1997 financial crisis, lasted six years of deflation, for when the markets fall, orders for a small state, industries and businesses should be very deep memory, the other was from 2003 to 2007, the growth per year. But crisis last year triggered by the subprime financial crisis has begun to transfer to the real economy, United States, Japan, and the contraction of European economies in 30 years in the same time, international demand has dropped, while the appreciation the yuan, rising production costs, such as the superposition of a number of factors have led to China's exports faced unprecedented pressure. The global financial crisis has triggered the possibility of a recession more and more, all having an impact on the quantity of China's economy is indeed worthy of our attention.
2. Power generation equipment rates Market growth slowed down obviously. National capacity for electricity generation in 1987, following a breakthrough 100 million kilowatts, nearly five years, a continuous realization of 400 million kilowatts and 5 million kilowatts, 600 million kilowatts, 700 million kilowatts through the landmark four main is scheduled for late 2008 early 2009 would break 800 million kilowatts. According to the National Bureau of Statistics show that although the annual growth the production of energy equipment, but the growth rate of the inflection point has already emerged from the growth rate of 92.9% in 2004 fell to 2007, 11.1% in the first three quarters of 2008, production equipment 97,824,800 kilowatts of energy production, a decrease of 4.3% (and in August for the first time a negative growth rate of growth). State Electricity Regulatory Commission issued the "2008 National Electric Power Industry 1 9 months Monthly Bulletin of Statistics "shows that in September 2008 GDP growth rate of 9.9%, electricity generation has increased only 9.7%, which is nearly 10 years, rising first in the production capacity to lower the status of growth of GDP. China elasticity of energy consumption (coefficient of growth rate of energy consumption and economic growth rate ratio) was below 1 (1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis erupted, this figure is less than 1).
Judging by the situation present the policies of the State macro-control strengthened, 2008 2010, rates of GDP growth in China slow down the inevitable, if the GDP increased by 9% and electricity generation facilities and the elasticity coefficient of 1.15 of GDP base to explore "Big low pressure" to eliminate rear capacity factors of production, electricity generation capacity is planned for 2010 will reach 947 million kilowatts more than the United States as the world's first (with an annual installed capacity of approximately 78 million kilowatts). Then in 2020, China has a total installed capacity goal of many? National Development and Reform Commission data is of 12.5 million kilowatts, the system predictive power of 1.5 billion kilowatts, if calculated according to 1.5 billion kilowatts of installed capacity, from 2010 to 2020, 10 years approximately 553 million kilowatts of installed capacity was added in conformity with the countries to optimize their development of coal, and develop vigorously hydropower, nuclear energy, construction, adequately develop the production of electricity natural gas, to encourage renewable energy and new electricity generating energy from structural adjustment of the line main market estimate average annual new thermal capacity installed 4,300 kilowatts. New installed capacity of the chain of next years can be negative growth, power generation equipment, will enter a phase of the cycle of decline. Currently, the overall capacity of the boiler industry powerhouse with 90 million kilowatts or more, the market competition will become more intense.
3. markets overseas and not easy to be too optimistic. In the international market situation of electricity shows that these years the pace of development has accelerated significantly. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and other Asian countries, South East demand for electricity have multiplied, but their lack of capability to equipment, rely primarily on imports, Africa market Electricity increasingly broad and South America, the resumption of the electricity market for Chinese exports of equipment provided with electrical potential. To develop the international market for electricity is a growing trend, but the uncertainty many projects abroad, so we are not enough to open markets overseas to make judgments too optimistic. According to the analysis, today's global marketplace, even with a seller's market, but to reinforce the favorable international market share in 3 to 5 years time. Enlarge proportion of foreign orders may increase the implementation risk and reduce profit margins. In Indonesia, for example, mid-2006 for the first half of 2008, signed the contract price per kilowatt increase of 30% only. This reflects the awareness and capacity of the negotiating groups the company must still be improved. This requires us to put the international community larger market do a good job we have also actively explore the prospect of the business community to reduce losses and improve the overall level of export prices of the boiler Central.
4. The industry potential risks can not be ignored. Currently, industries and businesses can be protected while in hand including 3 four years of stable income, but the downstream businesses of electricity generation to improve the flow Cash significantly less likely for a subject of concern, it may even cause a delay in the delivery of a negative situation.
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